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TRAFFIC LIGHTS BASE

(EVERY THURSDAY EVENING)

             September 20, 2018
Traffic

TVC COMMENTARY

We'd lose our
entire Chinese
market overnight
if it arrived here

September 16, 2018

TVC The market was dominated by discussion about the arrival of African swine fever in Belgium. This latest outbreak is obviously not through pig-to-pig contact given the distance from any other incidence of the disease in Europe which makes this even more concerning.

Therefore we must be even more vigilant. There will be the obvious zonal demarcation restricting movement of pigs as a consequence and product from these regions will not be allowed to be exported to any other country.

However, China's rules are different and once a country has contracted the disease. There is a total ban from China receiving and pigmeat products from Belgium regardless of whether they are from within the zone or otherwise.

This protocol is extremely disturbing because although Britain's largest export market is Europe, the Chinese market has become extremely important and adds significant value to the British industry.

And given China does not accept Europe's zonal restriction rules, this would render the arrival of African swine fever in Britain as catastrophic.

Tradewise on clean pigs, another stand-on week with supply meeting demand, both of which were uninspiring.

Pig weights have remained stable since the beginning of August and are behind last year's at the same time by 1.54kg. Most of this is as a consequence of poorer growth through the heat of the summer but many farms are reporting full pens and needing to keep the weekly sales up for room purposes more than target sale weight being attained.

The SPP (148.05p) now sits at just over 14p below this period last year and with feed prices at least doubling that burden, many producers, are at best on breakeven.

The sow trade was poor with demand diminishing bringing downward pressure on prices resulting in circa 3p reduction.

WEEKLY TRADING REPORTS

Peter Crichton
Updated Friday evenings

Thames Valley Cambac
Udated Mondays

ABOUT TRAFFIC LIGHTS

Traffic Lights is available to British pig producers on Thursday nights, advising next day's spot price sentiment. The Traffic Lights spot base provides sellers who have one-off loads of spot pigs (as opposed to regular weekly supplies) with a realistic minimum base price. In many cases it should be possible to achieve premiums over base. During periods of oversupply the Traffic Lights price will be well below contract levels but the reverse applies when pigs are short, when spot base will be well above contract rates.

PIG PRICE BAROMETER

Updated SEPTEMBER 20, 2018

Prices

APP British All Pig Price is a voluntary weekly survey of prices, including quality premiums, reported by pig producers. SPP British Standard Pig Price is a voluntary weekly survey of prices paid by pig abattoirs for standard non-premium pigs. TL SPOT Traffic Lights Spot provides sellers with a realistic minimum base price for one-off loads of spot pigs.


EUROPEAN AVERAGE PIG PRICE

European price fall is
gaining momentum

Prices

Week 37 — the downturn in the European Union average pig price is accelerating. If you're a glass-half-full type, it takes the pressure off our own prices. But there's no disguising the trend bodes ill for the winter months ahead.

Prices

BRITISH PIG PRICES


tlspot.co.uk
2018 BRITISH HEADLINE PRICES
▼ SPOT PRICE ▼ PRICES COMPILED BY AHDB
tlspot.co.uk
Traffic Lights base

Week

APP

SPP
††
Sept 20        
Sept 13 143 Sept 15   147.77
Sept 6 145 Sept 8 151.58 148.05
August 30 147 Sept 1 151.38 148.28
August 23 147 August 25 152.16 148.71
August 16 145 August 18 152.30 149.10
August 9 141 August 11 152.90 149.26
August 2 142 August 4 152.69 149.81
July 26 144 July 28 152.95 150.26
July 19 145 July 21 153.20 150.34
July 12 148 July 14 153.12 150.47
July 5 150 July 7 153.16 150.47
June 28 150 June 30 153.07 150.31
June 21 153 June 23 152.87 150.03
June 14 154 June 16 152.91 150.07
June 7 156 June 9 152.43 149.35
May 31 155 June 2 152.28 149.37
May 24 153 May 26 150.97 148.17
May 17 152 May 19 150.68 147.94
May 10 150 May 12 150.13 147.21
May 3 145 May 5 149.64 146.62
April 26 143 April 28 148.76 145.82
April 19 143 April 21 148.37 145.27
April 12 142 April 14 148.42 145.16
April 5 142 April 7 147.91 144.88
March 29 141 March 31 148.29 145.85
March 22 140 March 24 148.63 145.37
March 15 140 March 17 148.33 145.34
March 8 138 March 10 148.87 145.71
March 1 138 March 3 148.58 145.66
Feb 22 133 Feb 24 148.75 145.66
Feb 15 130 Feb 17 149.02 146.07
Feb 8 134 Feb 10 149.21 145.92
Feb 1 130 Feb 3 149.89 146.80
Jan 25 130 Jan 27 150.30 146.83
Jan 18 130 Jan 20 151 148.25
Jan 11 136 Jan 13 151.37 148.22
Jan 4 136 Jan 6 152.67 149.65
Dec 28 138 Dec 30 153.31 149.78
Price archive       

   

The independent British pig industry news and price reporting site, compiled by Digby Scott and Peter Crichton